Tuesday, December 15, 2009
It's been a while (we're as regular as a fiber-deprived broken clock), but it's time again for another "Writer's Horoscope." When reading this feature, it's important to remember that as writers, we're all professionals at making sh*t up. But this is REAL. It must be true! You read it on the interwebs!
If, however, you don't find that your entry in this horoscope seems to apply to you, it's entirely possible that your parents lied to you about your birth-date. (They may also be aliens. Or robots. Or robot aliens. Just remember next time you visit home, it wasn't our idea to cut them open and see what's inside!) Try another sign and see if it makes more sense to you. If it still doesn't seem to apply, keep in mind that they may not only have fudged the date, but the year, and possibly our earlier installments will fit you better. Find them here and here and here.
Aries (March 21 - April 19) - It's party season! Sure, you could stay home tonight and write, but why do that when you can go out and talk about writing to strangers who might just be impressed and feed your ego. This will work great until you ask the electric company to cash an ego check.
Taurus (April 20 - May 20) - If you're feeling in a writing rut, perhaps this would be a good time to try a collaboration. They say two heads are better than one, and you might benefit from having a sounding board for your ideas. Or maybe it will just remind you of how much better it was writing your own, and get you the hell back to work.
Gemini (May 21 - June 20) - Today could be the day you succeed. Today could be the day when your dreams are realized. Who knows who is reading your work, right this second? Who is thinking about it? Who may be reaching for a phone, or typing that all important email? This could be the day that everything changes. Or not. But every day could be that day, and today should be rich with possibilities. If it isn't, maybe you should have more work circulating.
Cancer (June 21 - July 22) - Networking isn't about chasing the most important person you can track down and shoving your manuscript at them under the bathroom stall door. It's about finding those unanticipated connections that turn out to be important to you, and it's just impossible to anticipate those. Spread kindness around, and treat everyone you meet like they're important. One of these days, some of them will be.
Leo (July 23 - August 22) - Avoid cliches like the plague. Stop chasing after things that others have already been successful at. A wise person once said, if you can see the bandwagon, it's too late to get on. Be a leader, not a follower. It's harder and riskier, but the potential riches, and the certain satisfaction are much greater.
Virgo (Aug 23 - September 22) - It's the nature of writers to lie. We make stuff up for a living, after all. But keep the lies in your fiction. Untruths told in business have a way of coming undone and biting you in the ass.
Libra (September 23 - Oct 22) - While it's important for a writer to shield their ego from criticism, praise, especially false praise, can be just as dangerous. Beware such praise. It can disguise ill-intent, or come at a hidden cost. Or it can simply over-inflate your ego and see you up for a fall.
Scorpio (Oct 23 - November 21) - Your patience may be getting thin, but you don't find a pearl without opening a lot of oysters first. Persistence pays.
Sagittarius (Nov 22 - Dec 21) - Sure, you're a dreamer! It's your gift! But it's also your curse. Don't look so far ahead. Think of the future and the big goals, yes, but keep your eye on the next step to getting there.
Capricorn (December 22 - January 19) - Don't call me Ishmael, but you may be chasing a white whale. Is there a project on your desk that has gone on far too long and taken far too much of your resources? Maybe it's time to either put a harpoon it in or let it go.
Aquarius (January 20 - February 18) - Never sell yourself short. Never eliminate the biggest, best, or most profitable option because you think it's out of your league. Go for the best until that option firmly eliminates itself. Then move on to the next best, and so on until you things find their level. You may not get the top, but never assume!
Pisces (February 19 - March 20) - One advantage of being a writer is that you set your own schedule. Yes, that means you can choose when to start, but if things are going well, expect they'll have their own ideas about when to stop.
If this is your birth month: You're a fortunate person! You understand that December isn't the end of the year so much as it is the quiet before the dawn. This is the time to prepare for a new year of opportunities and possibilities. Editors and agents have cleared off their desks, the holiday interruptions will soon be over, and thoughts will everywhere turn to the coming spring, rebirth, and new projects. Finish off that slice of birthday cake and get ready. A new journey is about to begin!
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Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Well, I'm here to put that to rest. It isn't going to happen. Whatever happens in the eBook market, Apple's tablet is going to be almost completely irrelevant. Here's why:
1. It may not exist
Okay, I wouldn't put big money on this one, but remember, this is just a rumor we're talking about here. Now don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that Apple has some tablet prototypes floating around somewhere. It's a concept they've toyed with for years.
But having a prototype is a long way from shipping a product, and Apple is far too smart to just shove a product out the door unless they think they have a winner. (Not that Apple hasn't had it's share of failures. Anyone remember the Newton? Or the Pippin? No? Google them.) Companies often invest large sums in prototypes and designs, tease them around, and never bring them to production. Anybody remember Volkswagen's "New Minibus" of the mid-90s. It was shown at car shows, announced for production, and even hatched a number of toys (including die-cast cars and a Barbie vehicle) before it vanished with no explanation.
There could be any number of reasons for Apple to not bring it out, or at least delay marketing it. Maybe they're waiting for just the right display or battery technology or price point to come along. Maybe they're waiting for more wireless data capacity to come along (since the iPhone has already logjammed large parts of AT&Ts network). Maybe they're worried it will compete with existing product lines that are already highly profitable. Maybe they don't want to launch a major new product line into a dead economy. Maybe they just don't think it will sell.
So, while I think it's likely that Apple will sooner or later ship something like the rumored tablet product, it's not a certainty. (And for that matter what is this "tablet?" Is it a souped up iPhone with a really big screen? Is it a new flavor of Macintosh? Is it the sort of unheard-of new-category product that Apple is famous for? People seem to be assuming it has something to do with eBooks based simply on the shape. Certainly it will have a screen, memory, and processing capability, which means it can display an ebook. So can your existing laptop or cellphone or the Jumbotron at the stadium. Doesn't necessarily make it an ebook game-changer.)
2. It costs too much
Okay, assuming that the rumors are true (and I'm going by the very latest rumors I could find), the Apple tablet will sell for about a $1000. That's way too much to be a significant factor in the eBook market. The entry-level Amazon Kindle and Barnes and Nobel Nook sell for about $250, and a slew of other eBook readers (mostly without wireless capability, and some with LED screens) are on or entering the market at even lower prices.
Given the rumor-factor, that price could be wrong, but we can make a couple of safe assumptions about this myth-product, whatever it is, if it is. It almost certainly won't close less than an iPhone, and probable will cost more. AT&T is selling no-contract iPhones for $600-700, and new MacBooks start at $1000, which seems to put $1000 somewhere in the sweet-spot for this product. Unless the rumors are completely wrong, it definitely isn't going to sell for under $500, and that just makes it a non-player.
The future of eBooks is with products cheaper than the current front-runners, and with non-eBook-specific products that huge numbers of people are already carrying with them anyway (primarily phones and computers at this point). To make significant market penetration, a eBook reader either needs to be in peoples pockets and purses already, or to be cheap enough that they won't hesitate to carry it everywhere with them, or to be cheap enough that they'll own several and keep them handy where-ever they might want to read.
Of course, while it's pretty certain this product may be used as an ebook, it's also pretty certain Apple won't be marketed as one anyway (Steve Jobs is on record as saying nobody actually reads any more, and relative to the kind of financial numbers he's going for, he might be right). If people buy this product in large numbers, and they might, it will be primarily for reasons totally unrelated to eBooks. All of which means that, if the tablet does hit the marketplace, it will likely sell in far larger numbers than a $1000 eBook would.
It doesn't matter. At this price, this isn't going to be an "everyone has to have one, now" product like the iPhone, and it's going to be priced way above most people's impulse threshold. There's no way it will sell (in the near term, anyway) in the kind of numbers needed to remake the eBook market. Of the numbers that do sell, many will be to people with little or no interest in eBooks, and it's going to be to valuable an item to carry around in a the casual way an eBook needs to be used.
3. It's Too Late
Going back to the rumor-well, latest word on the street is that the tablet might ship in the spring. By that time the Nook will have shipped in significant numbers, half-a-dozen new eBook readers will be on the market, and the Kindle 2 will have been on the market for well over a year. Amazon has a commanding, but perhaps not unshakable, lead in the market.
There's a short list of candidates to unseat them, all of them already in motion: Barnes and Nobel with their Nook, Sony with their Reader line, newspaper and magazine companies that might offer reduced price reader hardware as part of subscriptions, phone companies, who might offer reduced price devices as part of a contract deal, and who already have eBook-capable smart-phones flooding the market in Kindle-smashing numbers. Apple's Tablet isn't even close to making this list.
Which brings us to the final reason...
4. Apple's eBook game-changer shipped a long time ago
The most significant development in eBook readers isn't an eBook reader. It's the iPhone. Not just for the phone and its market penetration, though these are significant factors, but for popularizing the full-featured smart-phone market and the app-store concept. Over 30 million iPhones have already have already been sold, all with instant access to multiple eBook apps (including Amazon's).
According to an article at MediaBistro.com, Android-based phones (which include the hot new Verizon Droid) are projected to sell 6.5 million units this year, increasing to 31.8 million units in 2013. According to the same article, Android users have already downloaded just one eBook app 120,000 times. These are huge numbers, relative to the most optimistic projections of dedicated eBook readers.
Current generation smart phones like the iPhone and Droid are far from ideal eBook readers. The screens are too small, too hard to read, and the battery life just isn't there. They're definitely too small for the older audience who are currently the early adopters of eBooks. But they don't have to be perfect. They're already in people's pockets, they're there when people need them, and if they aren't ideal as a primary eBook reader, they're perfect as secondary ones. They're also a great way for people to sample eBooks without making the major outlay of a dedicated eBook reader.
As for the future, it's only a matter of time before smart-phones add larger fold-out or roll-up screens. Battery life will probably improve, Streaming video and web-browsing will be the driving forces here, but eBook apps will come along for the ride, and that could be a the biggest game-changer yet.
When will we see these big-screen phones? Maybe the next iPhone? You know Apple. Always the game-changer.
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